Kyrgyzstan auto market grows by 6.5% YTD in 2026, Toyota secures EV/PHEV lead

Kyrgyzstan Auto Market in 2026 reports a 6.5% year-on-year growth in sales, marking a continued expansion compared to the previous year. Changan led the rankings, up by 7.7% although Toyota secured 2nd while also driving BEV/PHEV to a 15.5% share.

Medium term market trend

Kyrgyzstan’s auto market opened the period at 12,408 units in 2021 and then expanded every year without interruption. Sales rose 25.0% to 15,504 units in 2022, then 17.6% to 18,240 units in 2023. That is a cumulative gain of 47.0% over two years. The pace of growth eased from one year to the next, and so did the volume added: 3,096 units in 2022 against 2,736 in 2023. The market was building steadily on a modest base rather than staging a sharp rebound.

2024 was the decisive turning point. Sales jumped 58.0% to 28,811 units, adding 10,571 vehicles in a single year, nearly twice the 5,832 units gained across 2022 and 2023 combined. 2025 extended the climb to a new annual peak of 34,792 units, up 20.8%, with 5,981 additional vehicles. Growth slowed to well under half the 2024 rate, yet the 2025 increment alone was larger than the entire gain recorded between 2021 and 2023. The market kept moving forward after its step change, now at a more measured pace.

The market in 2025 was 2.8 times its 2021 size, a rise of 180.4% and a compound annual growth rate of 29.4%. Nearly three-quarters (73.9%) of the 22,384 units added since 2021 arrived in just 2024 and 2025. The annual volume gain peaked at 10,571 units in 2024 and fell to 5,981 in 2025. For manufacturers and distributors, that points to a larger, more contested market in which further growth will increasingly have to be won through share gains rather than inherited from a rising tide.

2026 outlook

Through September 2026, the market recorded 27,798 units, up 6.5% year-on-year. That already equals 79.9% of the 34,792 units sold across all of 2025, leaving 6,994 vehicles to close the gap. The 2026 monthly average of 3,089 units also sits above the 2,899 average of 2025. Momentum is slowing, but not reversing. Growth has stepped down from 58.0% in 2024 and 20.8% in 2025 to 6.5%, while volume continues to expand from a much higher base. The market looks to be settling into a mature growth phase.

The 2026 trend is one of steady, broad-based expansion at a slower pace, with competition intensifying as growth comes to depend on share gains. Nine of the twenty ranked brands are growing faster than the market, while eleven are growing slower or contracting, so the gains are far from evenly shared. Demand remains positive, and electrified powertrains are carrying a growing part of the incremental volume. Matching the 2025 total requires only about 2,331 units per month in the final quarter, well below the year-to-date run rate. If current demand holds, 2026 is on course to set a new annual sales record, albeit by a narrower margin than in previous years.

Brand performance

1. Changan +7.7%
2. Toyota +5.4%
3. Chevrolet -3.1%
4. Chery +1.6%
5. Hyundai +0.4%
6. Haval +6.4%
7. Kia +0.7%
8. BYD +42.6%
9. Dongfeng -11.2%
10. Geely +84.1%
11. Lada -17.6%
12. MG +18.1%
13. Southeast +22.2%
14. Deepal +38.2%
15. GAC +6.9%
16. Jetour +25.9%
17. Isuzu -6.1%
18. Zeekr +28.7%
19. Jac 0.0%
20. BMW -3.0%

The strongest momentum sits in the challenger group further down the ranking. Geely (+84.1%) is the standout, followed by BYD (+42.6%) and Deepal (+38.2%). Zeekr (+28.7%), Jetour (+25.9%), Soueast (+22.2%) and MG (+18.1%) also expanded at several times the market’s 6.5% pace. These brands are building volume from smaller bases and taking share from the established names. Their rise is the clearest structural shift in the market this year.

At the top of the ranking, performance is steadier. Changan (+7.7%) leads the market and is also growing faster than it, which reinforces its position. Haval (+6.4%) and GAC (+6.9%) are expanding roughly in line with the market. Toyota (+5.4%) is growing, but slightly below the market rate, so it is conceding a little share even while adding volume.

Several mainstream names have lost momentum. Chery (+1.6%), Kia (+0.7%), Hyundai (+0.4%) and Jac (0.0%) are essentially flat in a growing market, which means a steady erosion of share. The weakest results come from Lada (-17.6%) and Dongfeng (-11.2%), followed by Isuzu (-6.1%), Chevrolet (-3.1%) and BMW (-3.0%). The Chevrolet decline stands out because the brand holds the third position in the ranking. Large volume offers little protection when demand is moving towards faster-growing competitors, and the contrast between the leaders and the declining brands points to a market that is reshuffling its competitive order rather than simply growing.

BEV/PHEV Market Trend and Outlook

BEV/PHEV vehicles grew 23.4% year-on-year and now account for 15.5% of the total industry, expanding more than three times faster than the overall market’s 6.5%. As a result, the BEV/PHEV share of total sales has risen from 13.4% to 15.5%, a gain of 2.1 percentage points in a single year. BEV/PHEV vehicles contributed nearly half of the market’s entire volume increase, while the rest of the market grew by only 3.9%.

At 15.5% of the market, BEV/PHEV vehicles are a core part of the market’s structure. They are carrying the growth that the conventional segment increasingly cannot deliver, and the segment’s pace holds up well against a market that is itself decelerating. The wider industry implication is that sales volume is becoming harder to defend for brands without competitive electrified offerings, while brands with strong BEV/PHEV portfolios are capturing a disproportionate share of the incremental demand. As long as the segment keeps growing well above the market rate, its share will keep climbing and the competitive hierarchy will keep shifting with it.

BEV/PHEV brand performance

1. Toyota +7.7%
2. BYD +42.6%
3. Deepal +38.2%
4. Zeekr +28.7%
5. World champion +16.1%
6. Volkswagen +9.0%
7. Kia +13.4%
8. Li Auto +17.2%
9. Honda -5.3%
10. Leap Motor New

Three brands are growing faster than the 23.4% segment rate: BYD (+42.6%), Deepal (+38.2%) and Zeekr (+28.7%). They occupy positions two to four, so the segment’s growth leaders are also among its largest players.

Toyota leads the segment but grew only 7.7%, well below the segment pace, so it is losing share within BEV/PHEV even as it holds first place. The mid-ranking brands are all expanding, although more slowly than the segment as a whole: Li Auto (+17.2%), Weltmeister (+16.1%), Kia (+13.4%) and Volkswagen (+9.0%). Kia stands out because its BEV/PHEV growth far exceeds its overall growth of 0.7%, so electrified models are carrying the brand’s performance. Honda (-5.3%) is the only brand in contraction, moving against a fast-growing segment.

Analysis and Outlook

The market's trajectory falls into two phases. The first was a period of step-change expansion: sales grew from 12,408 units in 2021 to 34,792 in 2025, with 2024 as the decisive inflection point. The second, now under way, is a maturing phase: growth has slowed to 6.5% in 2026, yet volume is still rising and 27,798 units have been sold through September. At the current run rate the market is on track for a new annual record, but the era of easy volume gains appears to be over.

Slower growth is shifting competition from market expansion to market share. Nine brands are growing faster than the market and eleven are not, and the fastest gains are concentrated among challengers such as Geely, BYD, Deepal, Zeekr, Jetour and Soueast. Established names including Chevrolet, Toyota, Hyundai, Kia and Chery are holding or losing share, while Lada and Dongfeng are contracting sharply. Scale alone no longer guarantees momentum.

Electrification is the strongest structural force in the market. With BEV/PHEV vehicles at 15.5% of the industry, growing at 23.4% and supplying nearly half of the market’s incremental volume, the segment now decides who gains and who loses share. The brands leading the segment’s growth are the same ones posting the largest overall gains.

The strategic priorities are clear. Incumbents with flat or declining conventional volumes need credible BEV/PHEV offerings to stay in the growth pool. Challengers face the task of converting rapid growth into durable positions as the base they are measured against gets larger. For the market as a whole, the final quarter of 2026 will test whether demand can hold at its current pace and deliver a new record year.